Tropical Storm Irene is the ninth named storm of the season. Irene has already spurred tropical storm warnings in parts of the eastern Caribbean and could reach hurricane strength in the next few days. Map: Summit Voice

According to a press release from the DDM, at 5:00am reports from radar and satellite and surface observations indicated that the center of tropical storm Irene was located near latitude 16.4 north longitude 61.3 west or approximately 256 miles from the virgin islands. Irene is moving toward the west near 21 mph and a motion toward the west or west-north west at a slower rate of speed is expected during the next 48 hours, the release stated.

On the forecast track Irene will pass through the leeward islands this morning and move into the northeastern Caribbean sea this afternoon. Irene could approach Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irene could become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 MB. The track has been shifted slightly east of the previous forecast due to a relocation of the center. This brings the system closer to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands than the previous advisory.

Forecast

The center of Irene has reformed a little to the north of its previous location. The center is now near Guadeloupe. The overall motion remains slightly north of due west. On this track, Irene is expected to pass about 50 miles south of St. Croix this afternoon and pass a similar distance south of Puerto Rico tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, Irene is expected to move near or over the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The forecast confidence drops to below average after Irene nears southeastern Cuba Wednesday night. There is a strong divergence in the model solutions. One group takes the system over or east of the Florida Peninsula. However, some reliable models continue to indicate a track toward the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast is shifted a little to the east at days 3 through 5 and indicates a position near southwest Florida. However, it must be stressed that the confidence is below average and future shifts of the forecast track are likely.

Irene is slowly becoming better organized. Environmental conditions remain very favorable for significant development. The forecast indicates steady intensification until it interacts with the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The new forecast indicates winds will be about 85 mph when it affects the Dominican Republic.

Weakening is expected while it interacts with the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. However, the extent of the weakening will depend upon how long the system spends over land. If the system spends a long time over land, it could weaken to a low end tropical storm. If the system remains over land for a short time, it could become a strong hurricane. The intensity forecast for now splits the difference and weakens the system to a moderate to strong tropical storm.

Once Irene moves off of Cuba, conditions are expected to be favorable for development and the forecast now indicates Irene regaining hurricane intensity as it nears Florida. Confidence in the intensity forecast is very low, especially after 3 days.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Heavy squalls are expected to last through the afternoon hours. 5-10 inches of rain are likely.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls are expected to move over the area by Sunday morning and last through early Monday. 8-12 inches of rain are likely, with higher totals possible across the elevated areas of Puerto Rico. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Virgin Islands until 2PM today. This watch could be upgraded at short notice to warning. These rains are likely to cause flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm force winds are also likely.

Dominican Republic: Squalls are expected to start affecting the area on Monday morning. Up to 8-12 inches of rain are expected in the Santo Domingo area through Tuesday morning. These rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides.

Jamaica: Squalls will likely affect the area on Tuesday.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Sea conditions will gradually deteriorate later tonight with seas 8 – 12 feet. Small Crafts are asked to see anchorage. Persons accessing beaches should exercise extreme caution or refrain from swimming until the system has passed and it is safe to do so.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the weather conditions and provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to their notification link to receive further updates.