The Incumbent’s Paradox
The effective investigator cannot ignore three factors that impact his form and ability to affect a successful outcome to an investigation: ego, intuition and logic. Of the preceding three ego is the most damaging and useless factor and leads frequently to delusion and error. Logic and rationale may appear the most effective factors, however ignore intuition, the gut instinct, at your peril.
Now the constellation of the investigative writer, as previously stated, is composed of datapoints, or dots of information. This he or she uses to drive a story or narrative by linking similar dots together. However, two unlikely dots can link, and this is where the investigation gets complicated. The murder weapon, with a clear set of fingerprints and established ownership, may not have been used by the owner to carry out the murder. This is where intuition comes in.
Not all dots are equal: in the investigator’s constellation, there are hubs, stars and floating matter such as meteorites, using an astrophysicist’s terms. The hub holds a tremendous amount of information and is where the outcome of the narrative frequently terminates.
OK. In establishing the likely outcome of the next Virgin Islands General Election, one massive star- massive dot, in the constellation of the investigator is the power of the incumbent to affect an outcome. However, history has shown this investigator that incumbency is a double-edged sword. It will cut the incumbent as equally sharply as it will cut the adversary or opponent.
Voter trust is the second dot that orbits the star termed the incumbency factor. When a government is trusted and competent, it is very difficult for that government to lose an election.
There are various analogies both local and international that prove that fact. Bill Clinton was a ‘’worthless philanderer but was re-elected because voters trusted his competence: his ability with policy.
On the other hand, the incompetence of Donald Trump will see him come crashing down in the midterms in spite of the fact that Trump is the charismatic leader of a vast white supremacist movement. The failed Iran war will cost the Republicans, come the midterms. The incumbent factor is very much at play in the Virgin Islands and will affect the upcoming General Elections.
Do voters believe the incumbents have succeeded with the mandate it was given at the last election, and even before that time?
Or will voters punish this government for perceived incompetence?
Predicting the outcome of the next Virgin Islands General Election is a very hard task owing to the fact that the level of anger against this government, especially with the hated GREEDY BILL, remains a toxic element in the mix of factors that will affect the election outcome.
With the Virgin Islands incumbency factor, time alone will tell how it affects voter intention.
Dickson Igwe is an Investigative Writer
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7 Responses to “The Incumbent’s Paradox”
Politics is about solving social, economic, social, etc., problems. Generally, candidates either incumbent, challenger or new aspirant must make reasonable, practical, etc., promises to get elected. However, promises must be accompanied by how the promise(s) will be funded, timeline for attainment, opportunity cost of the promise, etc. Challengers often are at a disadvantage, having a tough row to hoe, demonstrating that incumbent(s) fail to deliver in the best interest of the people, the territory, delivering for the public interest, etc. They have to show that he/she has a plan to deliver with the same or less resources a higher level, better quality of service, etc..
Moreover, a challenger benefits from a negative political winds of change. The evident truth is that political aspirants out of office profess to have all the fixes, solutions,,etc, as to what ails government and can deliver better, more cost effective services. However, they getting in office presents a different tory, ie, services have to be delivered with available resources. Government face the challenge of delivering the most/best services to the most people..
Further, the bottom line is that at the end of the day it is up to the voters who are elected or not..Voting matters. To the victor go the spoils. Consequently, the electorate must get engaged, do their research, ask questions, decide on a choice, go the poll and vote on Election Day. However, casting their votes completed, the electorate cannot go in hibernation until the next election cycle; they must stay engaged holding members responsible and accountable by holding their feet to fire.