Dickson C. Igwe. Photo: VINO/File

The investigator looks for patterns in that constellation. Linking various objects, similar and dissimilar, offers a narrative that may lead to a plausible outcome, such as who is likely to win the upcoming General Election in the Virgin Islands. Scientific investigation differs from investigation in human subjects, such as politics and economics. The use of the scientific method, such as observation and assessment, is useful, however.

Already, this writer has observed various dots and data points, some more significant than others on the subject of the upcoming General Election: the incumbent factor, voter anger at the GREEDY BILL, the importance of likeability, voter trust in a government’s competence, tribalism, party discipline, party indiscipline, poor infrastructure, the crossover factor, and so on and so forth.

He has offered the incumbents a very slight advantage so far. That advantage is as tenuous as it gets. It takes one small shift in any of the preceding factors to change the game.

Now of all the objects in the constellation that historically have proven critical to victory at an election, the most vital has been the FEEL-GOOD FACTOR. Feel Good is an intangible. It is lodged deep in the heart of the voter. However, history has revealed that when voters feel good about their existence, this works in favour of the incumbent. On the other hand, voters will swiftly kick out a government if the Feel-Good factor is nonexistent.

The feel-good factor has historically been the product of low inflation and a growing economy that increases employment opportunities. Although that is not always the case. A very charismatic leader can carry the day even in the midst of economic hardship.

Again, using the USA as an analogy, the Joe Biden economy was supposedly a great one. However, voters did not feel good about their lives and believed the cost of living was too high. That may have been owing to the low energy of Biden and it was one reason for the return of Donald Trump.

In the UK, voters believe their children will be worse off than themselves. Thatcherism and austerity have failed the UK. Add Brexit to that mix, and it is all downhill. There is no feel-good factor in present-day Britain. There has been a constant change in Prime Ministers as a result.

A government that wants to enjoy longevity cannot ignore the feel-good factor. In the Virgin Islands, that means good infrastructure that supports regular electricity and water supply; a food and agriculture policy that offers consumers low prices in the supermarkets, accessible and cheap healthcare and education, and affordable housing, to name a few.

One Feel-Good factor is a well-looked-after public service. In a country where the Public Service plays a huge role in governance, incentives such as stable pensions, increments and salary increases are the Feel-Good factor for that segment of the population. Ignore Feel-Good at your peril as a politician.