Dickson Igwe. Photo: Provided

The objective of a DAVOS type conference that costs delegates 100K a head should be the weighty task of these global political, business, and social leaders agreeing on an achievable vision for the future of the planet, no matter how difficult that is.

A well thought out vision offers a country the opportunity to craft a national mission, which in turns leads to effective national economic planning that leads to the vision.

One reason politicians such as Donald Trump, Bernie sanders, and Jeremy Corbyn, are resonating with millions of western voters is that they present a clear vision of where they want to take the world. Whether their visions are flawed is beside the point. The fact is they have a vision that has captured the imagination of millions.

Trump is the herald of an isolationist, militarist, protectionist, economically populist, and insular America. That is his dream for America that will “make America great again.”

“Comrade” Sanders is a socialist who is also an economic populist. Sanders does not mind doubling the US national debt to 40 trillion in order to offer free college tuition, single payer national health insurance, and massive middle and working class welfare, while taxing the 1% to the hilt. Corbyn in the UK, like Sanders is a socialist. Sanders and Corbyn have a socialist vision of the future.

All three politicians could be accurately called CLASS WARRIORS. They represent an economic and social segment of their national populations. They possess and project a vision on behalf of the class they represent.

Now, visionaries are a rare breed of person. Technocrats and bureaucrats run the world today. However, technocrats are not visionaries. Technocrats may get the boat from A to B given a safe and easy route. But it takes the visionary to get the vessel across glacial seas, the vastest ocean, and that treacherous channel with myriad rocky formations on the seabed.

The world today is in social, political, and economic turmoil. Global deflation means slow growth for the world economy for the foreseeable future. There is no real vision of the world by the global establishment on how to get economic growth going. Austerity has failed. Monetary stimulus in the form of QE has not been the solution. Consumers everywhere remain cautious.

Geopolitically, there is no vision for the next twenty to thirty years, apart from pessimistic assumptions on the rise of a hegemonic China, greater chaos in the Middle East, expectations of a new Cold War with Russia, the rise of American Isolation, and the threat of climate change. This is the age of PESSIMISM, or so it would appear.

The overarching, panoramic, and visionary personality is a rarity, he or she is nonexistent. There is no Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Ronald Reagan, or Nelson Mandela in today’s world. The Great and Visionary Leader is nowhere to be found. The result is that there is great unpredictability and a lack of direction.

Begin with International policy. Barrack Obama has been quite honestly “hopeless” in his international policymaking. He has no vision for bringing peace to the Middle East. He appears to be unable to contain rogue states such as North Korea, The ISIS Caliphate, and Libya, even with overwhelming US military might. Under his watch NATO has been “defanged,” and it is being scorned by Russia. Obama has no defined vision for where the world’s most powerful nation should sit in 30 years. After 8 years of Obama the world is a much more dangerous place.

The US military machine, the sole guarantor of global peace for the past 70 years, is “sputtering.” Obama has no vision for how the US will manage an ascendant China. He is unwilling to put steel between Russia and European Allies of the US. And his recent deal with Iran is a recipe for further turmoil and even disaster in the Middle East. Iran opposes the US in the Middle East in every way measurable.

Iran is a solid ally of Russia. So doing a deal that ends sanctions against Iran without getting anything in return, is tantamount to a turkey voting for Christmas: nuclear blackmail. The Iran, Russia, Assad Axis is a cocktail of civil war and confusion that will continue for decades. Assad and his Iranian and Russian Allies cannot defeat the Sunni Arab majority of the Middle East. And make no mistake the Shia-Sunni conflict is a civil war.

Russia has a vision that means destabilising Europe for some notion that an unstable Europe is good for Russia. Putin’s militarism is ultimately self defeating, however. Russia at the end of the day cannot win a war with a much more powerful North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Vladimir Putin’s vision will lead the Russian state over the proverbial precipice. What Putin has failed to understand is that military power is most effective when backed by economic power.

Putin’s vision of a strong Russia, without the requisite social and economic development, is a mirage. What is Putin’s vision for the Russian economy, apart from his managing a corrupt oligarchy that feeds off oil and gas revenues?

Russia has the potential to become a powerful technological and industrial state. However, a lack of vision by its ruling oligarchy is proving insurmountable.  

Putin still has not learned that modern state power is a synonym for economic power. Russia should beat its guns into ploughshares and help foster global peace and harmony. That would much more benefit the Russian people.

Nigeria is a synonym for failed African and Middle Eastern economic leadership. The country went through 40 years of oil revenues without a vision of where the country should end up. There was no economic, social, or cultural vision.

Today, with oil revenues plummeting, its leaders are even more visionless than leaders of that nation 40 years ago, when oil first made its appearance as a major earner of national revenues.

Nigeria is simply an example of what happens when there is visionless leadership. Today, it is an import economy, with an unmanageable and top heavy bureaucracy, and a stone-age infrastructure. One plus: the present regime seems determined to crush corruption. That is a good thing and the beginning of renaissance for Nigeria, if successful.

OK. On economic policy, the greatest threats to global stability are clearly terror and war, wealth inequality, and slowing economic growth. Great wealth inequality is the driver of these threats. It produces political instability and slow economic growth.

World economic growth has slowed this early 2016. The cause of this economic stagnation has been placed at the doorstep of China by economic pundits. China is facing great economic turmoil, as the country changes from an export driven economy to one where internal consumers play a major role in economic and GDP growth. China’s slowing economy is blamed for the collapse in demand of commodities and oil.

Europe too is a factor in global instability. Europe’s leaders do not understand that a federal and integral Europe is the way to turn a clumsy colossus into a truly powerful super state. Integration will turn Europe into a real powerhouse. A powerful and peaceful Europe will be a boon to the global economy and aid international security. But integration will mean sacrifices. The rich countries of the continent will have to aid the poor. And integration will cost trillions. Countries will have to give up sovereignty. The price will be worth it.

In the end all Europeans will be better off and more secure in an integrated and federal state of over 500 million urbane, well educated, and technologically savvy citizens.

Countries that have no defined vision often get things wrong. Economic and social planning is impossible without a clear vision. The same thing with regions: when there is no vision of the future, the result is often stagnation, conflict and war. 

When a country has no vision, it has no plan of action for how it wants to achieve the NATIONAL DREAM. Why: because no national dream or national vision exists. The country is on a wide road to nowhere. Eventually the country, like the Titanic, hits a glacier, and starts to take in water. Or, nationalism and fascism rears a head, taking the country to hell.  

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