Above: Dickson Igwe Photo: supplied

Now, any accurate assessment of voter demographics in the Virgin Islands is an impossible exercise. Why? Well, the country does not as yet have accurate statistical information on its population numbers, and the numbers of various sub sets within that population. These are numbers that are critical if any political narrator is to make wise assessments on voter positioning and intention.

Consequently, any writer of opinion, attempting to pen an accurate account on Virgin Islands demographic politics, will be unable to offer readers, reasonably precise and reliable quantitative and qualitative information, on voter demography and behavior, this early 2014.

In the USA, on the other hand, one can take a snapshot at any time and get a reasonably accurate picture of voter demographics and voter intentions. How come? Because, there is a wealth of statistical information in the US, that gives guidance to the political commentator and analyst on political state of play, and on a daily basis.

Back home in the Virgin Islands, the best any writer can do, in writing on the voter demographic, is to use their own personal observation, and the feedback from voters who may offer an objective opinion. It is left for the reader to determine for themselves the country’s political state of affairs within the political climate and social context of a given period of time.

The objective of a political forum on national media is to enable voters and residents think and express themselves on the powerful subject of politics. Politics is simply, the art of power.

Someone stated once that politics, ‘’cannot be ignored.’’ But even better stated is this statement: ‘’politics can be ignored,’’ however, ‘’politics will not ignore the resident who is deceived into thinking that not taking part in the great political matters of the day is an option.’’

One can run away from politics. However, whether one votes or not, very frequently, politics comes running after the apathetic individual, wherever that individual may seek to hide. Politics finds the fugitive from politics and gives him or her, ‘’A NASTY BITE,’ in the proverbial rear. So better it is to face the political beast, than run away from it.

The following story is by no means scientifically accurate, and it is not an endorsement of any political party or politician.

OK. Politics in the Virgin Islands shows three developments this early 2014, according to this Observer of all things economic, social, and political. First, the opposition dynamic changes by the minute. The opposition appears fluid, and yet to get organized for a ferocious battle in about 18 months.

No one can predict what is going to happen next in that powerful outfit. Rest assured: organization and order will have to appear swiftly, if the opposition cherishes migrating to Political El Dorado

The Rising Star in the party looks good. His political performance over the past two years has been unassailable; his political posture, impeccable. Even his theatrics, a common feature of politicians and their art, leaves a pleasant after taste. He is the hardest working politician outside of government.

However, the Elder Statesman of Virgin Islands politics, the OLD LION KING, continues strutting about the political jungle, until who knows when?

Second, and despite disaffection with the incumbents by many in the electorate, the incumbents remain well organized, cohesive, and better prepared for war at the end of 2015: much more so than the opposition.

As the opposition sits at present, it will have to get organized very soon, or begin to see the sun set, on any chances of power. In other words, kiss any hopes of power in 2016 goodbye. The incumbents remain the most effective political team in the country, for now.

The power of incumbency further gives the governing team powerful aces in their pack of cards. These are aces that could affect the trajectory of an election campaign if played with skill and focus.

This political observer alluded to a demographic advantage the incumbents possessed months back. This advantage locks into a changing population composed of younger voters, the under 50s. The under 50s do not possess the political loyalties of yesteryear. This is where the swing vote in the Virgin Islands is most present. This observer believes older more traditional voters are more likely to vote for the current opposition still; as long as that opposition redefines itself in a changing political topography.

This older generation is a key advantage for the opposition, especially for two men in two key districts, who appear to have the elderly vote locked in, to their great advantage. Ignore the elderly at great peril. The elderly, over 60s, are more likely to vote than younger voters, especially the under 30s. That is a fact of politics in most western states. On the other hand, the under 50s make predicting an election outcome in the Virgin Islands at the end of 2015, very difficult indeed. 

Third, the time is rapidly winding down for a third party to enter the scene and run a successful campaign. In a two party system, both main players tend to take all the oxygen out of the game of political survival, leaving the small guys to suffocate. A third party will have to get its act together soon. Why? Because as soon as the opposition gets organized, if and when that happens, then the chances for a third party entering the race, and playing an effective ball game become increasingly slim. That is a fact of Two Party Politics. 

Then it appears that the campaign for power in 2016 has already started. Campaigning for two years, or the two year campaign, is a phenomenon in the USA. It is swiftly becoming part of the Virgin Islands political culture.

The greatest advantage the opposition held until recently was the fact that a significant number of voters in these Lesser Antilles are SWING VOTERS. That is voters that swing from one party to the next at subsequent elections.
The swing was against the current opposition in 2011. So the opposition expects the next move of the pendulum to return right back to the party. However, for that to happen it had better get its organization back on track, and in fighting form, or else. Enough said!

The opposition would be very unwise indeed, to expect this return of the pendulum, come what may. The opposition will have to work very hard to gain each and every swing vote. Why? Well, the following narrative will try to explain.
According to the Blog ‘’Wise Geek,’’ accessed by this wannabe political analyst on January 30, 2014, a swing voter is, ‘’ someone who lacks a strong affiliation with a particular political party. As a result the voter’s behavior in an election is not easy to predict.’’

In other words a swing voter is a voter who is unsure of their own voting intention up and until the very last minute.
The defining characteristic of the swing voter is this one: he or she is unwilling to commit. In the USA, according to the wise geek, ‘’ political analysts working for political campaigns tend to invest a great deal of energy in identifying the swing vote and how to secure that vote.’’ Political parties in the Virgin Islands would be wise to do the same.

Both main political parties in the Virgin Islands have their core supporters: their base of support. Arguably, because the opposition party is older, it has a larger base than the incumbents. Core voters are voters, most likely to vote for a particular party: mainly loyalists and traditionalists.

However depending on core voters in the Virgin Islands as a strategy is very risky. Core voters are a shrinking demographic, especially for the opposition. There is a new and younger generation of voters in the Virgin Islands that will behave much differently from the current crop of over 50s. The under 50s are also a more diverse group in terms of background nationality and ethnicity, with a significant number of new citizens.

Predicting how this younger generation will vote is no easy task.

To be continued

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