Dickson Igwe. Photo: VINO

The statement had this writer thinking. Politics is the air we breathe and the water we drink. Our futures and those of our children and grandchildren are decided by the policy decisions that politicians make locally, nationally, and internationally. Politics is “bread and butter.”

A great philosopher stated once that those who ignore politics “will be ruled by inferiors.” Another said that “those who ignore politics have no right to complain when things go wrong.” Agreed, politics is complex, difficult, disheartening, and even violent at times. Still, there is no excuse for not taking part in one one’s own governance, and in a democratic process that millions have died for in war and peace, since the early 1900s.

Now, many moons before that “fortuitous statement” was made about the lack of participation in the political game by able Virgin Islanders, this Old Boy met with an even older boy than himself. It was a majestic evening in paradise. The stars smiled and the moon yawned as he strolled into a large mansion with a majestic view of a large well lit harbor attached to an intoxicatingly luscious island in the Virgin Islands Archipelago.

Yachts bobbed in the waters of the bay further lighting up the idyllic environs. A number of hundred million dollar yachts sat in the waters washing the mooring directly in front the mansion. A sea breeze caused majestic palms in the large garden surrounding the “palace” to bend and bow. Palm fronds rustled magically in the wind giving off a pleasant whistle. It was going to be a magnificent and glamorous evening.

The Fifty Something Occupant of the palatial residence was one of those powerful types around whom the planet orbits. This was a man who was more than a “Big Shot.” He was one of those “powerful beasts” who can be correctly termed a pillar of the global establishment. 

Calling him a frequent flyer would be an understatement. Here was one of those cunning types that lived in First Class. He was probably about to hop from his sizeable mansion to a meeting at Davos in Switzerland, or to a friend’s golf course somewhere in Europe, by private jet, later that evening.

And as is the habit of men and women of great power he said a lot without saying anything at all. He was all nuance, hyperbole, metaphor, and humour. He smiled sardonically, winked mischievously, rotated unpredictably, and swayed from side to side like a prize fighter. His was the smile on the face of the tiger, the proverbial iron fist in the velvet glove

His privileged guests hung on to his every word. Every act and movement of the Older Boy was worthy of observation and note. His white suited butler stood nearby attentively. His “Palace staff” of aides, servants, and security detail, ambled about like busy bees: a veritable picture of competence and professionalism. 

The formidable Older Boy- a very sociable type in spite of his upper crust credentials- ambled by to where this grateful guest stood in “shock and awe.” A Fungi band played exotic tunes, and guests, most in dinner jackets and black ties danced energetically. Jack the Jet Setter stated that he enjoyed reading this Old Boy’s stories. He said that they were in the “public interest.” This Writer smiled in “deep appreciation.”

The Great Man further stated that this Old Boy jumped off his Charger called “Impartiality” some moons ago. He mounted instead a wild horse called “bias.” The result was that he rode into a “blazing inferno.”

That horse called bias caused him to lose much credibility with his readers. The wild horse “Bias” caused him to take friendly and unfriendly fire simultaneously. “Jack Global” told this Old Boy that he looked forward to his stories as long as he wrote objectively and without favour. Your “wannabe Don Quixote” went into a trance after this “complex encounter.” It lasted hours.

Well, this Old Boy will be honest. He is NOT a successful observer of the science called politics and the art known as power. In fact, his past forays into the subject of power could be described as “downright embarrassing.”

He has been wrong on the outcome of general elections at home and abroad too many times. He has been successful in certain nuanced statements that he has made. But his “dodgy” record of “unsuccessful election prediction” would see his head blown off at the first pull of the trigger in a game of Russian roulette. One example: Brexit caught him with his “pants down.” He has been wrong on Virgin Islands election outcomes too many times to be considered a plausible “political pundit.” Yes: confession is good for the soul.

On the plus side of the balance sheet he has rightly determined that political parties are a permanent feature of Virgin Islands politics where once upon a time the INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE was part and parcel of the political landscape. Although there have been “utterances” that the “independent candidate” and “coalition government” might be making a comeback in the not too distant future.

He has also stated correctly that changing demographics in the Virgin Islands have altered the political calculus dramatically, fundamentally, and unpredictably, with thousands of migrants gaining the vote in the past 30 years. He is also certain that voters under the age of 30 years have a very different view of politics than their parents. Consequently, success in politics means understanding and targeting that new demographic. 

Leaving the Virgin Islands and venturing North, and this Old Boy rightly saw the rise of Donald J. Trump in the USA, when many considered The Donald just “Plain Crazy.” The rise and probable fall of Donald Trump has certain lessons for every politician and political wannabe at home and abroad.

OK “Jack the Wannabe Political Analyst” has learned some bitter truths from the Trump Hillary Narrative and various antecedents that have made him eat “Humble Pie” in recent years.

He has become wiser with age. He has learned through the “school of hard knocks” to never take the intelligence of Jack the Voter for granted. Jack and Jill Voter are usually “spot on” in their political instincts, especially where they are the majority who back a political party, politician, or a national policy of some type. It takes either a very brave man, or an ignorant fool, to question the wisdom of the majority.

The “mind of the voter” is to this failed political analyst one of the greatest “mysteries in the universe.” It is a hugely complex place that must be respected and never toyed with. Consequently, political prediction for this Old Boy remains a “game for mugs.” Therefore, and as a consequence of his “colossal failure” in the subject, he will simply write about observables from hence.

Yours truly will become Jack the Empiricist so to speak. He will look at the math, the whole math, and nothing but the math. He will dump emotion down the “proverbial latrine.” He will never ever again attempt to be “Joe Prophet.” He will talk “probability,” never “certainty.” Algebra will be his science. X times X equals X Squared and 2 times X equals 2X. And if one plus one is two, then it will remain two: it could never be three or four.

So what has the Trump Hillary Saga taught him? The first thing is to never underestimate an electorate hungry for change. And, there will always be an anti elitist segment in the population. This anti elitism springs from myriad factors: envy, helplessness, and anger at being an outsider where insiders run the show. Anti elites are the Jack and Jill Averages who dislike existing within the limitations of their powerless demographic which offers the couple zero political influence.

The rise of Trump has taught him that all one needs as a politician is to get a strong base of support of about 30% of the electorate. These are the “die hard” who will march off a cliff for their hero. These are the sort Jack the Politician wants in his trench. Get that base of support and Julius Caesar is sitting “sweet” on that most precious of political assets: a social movement and a personal constituency. That is the equivalent to “owning a district” in Virgin Islands politics, or controlling a segment of the voting population. Populism is here to stay. But populism will not necessarily take Caesar to national leadership

Yes, whether Trump wins or loses in a few two days- and despite the FBI Saga Hillary remains the clear favourite- Trump has benefitted from the process. Yes, Trump is painted by the media as a SOCIOPATHIC PERSONALITY, but the Billionaire Developer will remain the rider of the “white working class horse” for the foreseeable future.

But the white working man will not take Trump to the White House. Trump will need to enlarge his appeal to non white and non male demographics if he is to be in charge of those ominous “nuclear codes.”

Hillary R. Clinton, if she wins, wins, because she is backed by science: political math. She is just as unlikeable as Donald Trump. Where Trump is pure bombast Clinton is pure artificiality. However, Clinton has demography on her side.

Trump’s actions have alienated women voters. Essentially, that is the equivalent of drinking “political cyanide.” Women form more than 50% of US voters. Then add to that the fact that Trump is disliked by the highest percentage of Latino and African American voters than any other candidate in recent history, and you can begin to see the Mount Everest Trump has to climb, and in just a few days.   

Still, as stated in the preceding, this Writer will not prophesy. He wants to live a long and healthy life. He will only speculate that anything remains possible in a very tight race.  

If charity begins at home what can Donald and Hillary teach the Virgin Island politicians? That he cannot stay locked in his tiny habitat and expect national political success. Caesar will have to plunge into all the various vicinities on the electoral map. He must get the support of voters and power players “everywhere,” not just in his local environment and among his core supporters. And he will have to get that “national across the board support” within his political party infrastructure, and outside it.

More importantly, he will have to play poker in the wider world, that unforgiving global jungle, where a “Supremely Polished” King Kong, sitting in his large mansion, overlooking a majestic private harbour filled with multimillion dollar yachts, calls the shots.

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