Health Officials predicted COVID-19 outbreak - National Epidemiologist
“This is an unprecedented outbreak, but it is actually something that we forecast last year, as something that we were actually discussing in the earlier part of 2021. We definitely knew that it was imminent,” she said during a live broadcast on July 8, 2021.
“Our models have some functionality, but we cannot pinpoint exactly when because of the variants in different public health measures and the increase in mobility and the contact we have seen amongst persons. But, we did know that within 6 to 8 months, we would have seen something just based on the protocols that were not being implemented in 2020 and 2021,” she added.
The National Epidemiologist said; however, that the outbreak is not something that is just isolated to the territory, but other countries like Colombia, Paraguay, Argentina and other Caribbean islands that previously had the virus under control are now seeing surges.
She said while the reasons may vary by country, the common thread is the difficulties in maintaining vigilance of a highly transmissible virus and balancing the economics against the social considerations.
Virus never left us
Ms Brewley-Massiah said despite claims to the contrary, the virus never left the Virgin Islands.
“The virus never left the VI because after the lockdown, we still had tertiary cases that would have gone on and infected other persons. So it was still there simmering beneath the surface,” she said.
On the topic of lockdowns, she said when the territory implements a lockdown, it does not kill the virus.
“What a lockdown does is that it elongates the outbreak cycle, so instead of you having a large number of cases in a short period of time, what it does is it spreads it out over time so that the health care sector and the public health officers do not get overwhelmed. So it doesn’t necessarily mean that the prevalence of cases will decrease it just makes it more manageable on the country’s part, but what a lockdown should do and help is actually decrease the daily growth rate because you are limiting the number of contacts that you can have with other people, and it should also help to reduce or prevent fatalities, and that is something that the BVI has to commend ourselves for,” she added.
Ms Brewley-Massiah also said one of the reasons for the present spike in cases is “our very low adherence to the public health measures,” such as wearing masks properly, socially distancing and hand hygiene.
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26 Responses to “Health Officials predicted COVID-19 outbreak - National Epidemiologist”
However those of us who decided it was best not get vaccinated are responsible, it seem to me that the govt did its best to curtail the spread. We the people must deal with it as best we can, we are responsible.
I limited going out - only to grocery store as necessary - and always fully masked (N95) and hand sanitizing, as is and as should be required. I believe in the efficacy of the protocols (when correctly adhered to)! And I believe in the efficacy of the vaccine.
I agree with you that the Government did their best to curtail and manage Covid. But a largely unvaccinated population appears to be a rich target for the Delta variant...as can be seen not just in the BVI but in places all over the world
Gibraltar is not an example that we want to follow.
We can't change it now, but our method of testing people on arrival and not letting them out of quarantine without a negative test, was working and the tourists were coming and it didn't result in loss of lives.
Gibraltar may not be the example we want to follow, but we're surely going down that path.
Agreed that testing visitors was a good strategy. It's worked in the USVI also. The problem is the symptomatic cycle of disease within a community in denial.
The genie is out of the bottle now, and no one can put him back in.