Above: Dickson Igwe Photo: supplied

It will also need to elect a NEW MANAGEMENT TEAM to steer the party into the future. The NEW LEADER will have to be a safe and competent pair of hands, an honest, capable, and visionary leader, acceptable to all sections of the party.

But not a leader imposed by scheme, device, and the party establishment.

Now, some months ago, an educator, colleague, and strong supporter of one of the two main contenders for leadership of the opposition stated to this Old Boy Journalist: ‘’them boys gon mash up that party Boss.’’ Mash up is local vernacular for break up.

Many moons later, this Observer was in idyllic Jost Van Dyke. A powerful Virgin Islands politician came up to him while he was sitting in on a taxi stand opening ceremony on the main ferry dock with a school principal. The Great man smiled expansively from ear to ear. He is one of those charismatic characters with a classic grin. The Elected Official and Senator stated: “A split is coming in the Grand Ole Party meh son. I predicted this a long time ago.’’

After this, on the early afternoon of May 19, another colleague at the workplace stated that if Honorable X is up against the party establishment, then it is going to be hard for him.

But even more interestingly, on the late afternoon of the same May 19, 2014, a powerful member of the present ruling party also approached him smiling. ‘’Well,’’ Mr. Political Big Shot stated, “the man the Old King supports wins. However, the Old King will exact a price for his support.’’ In other words, he will ‘want something in return.’ This Politics writer’s off the cuff response was: “well Sah! I thought these guys were in politics for love of country?’’ Is good politics all about getting the least hungry rat to guard the public cheese? He later thought.

Life is frequently ironic. If one would have stated 4 weeks ago that the race for leader of the opposition party would be neck and neck this latter part of May, 2014, some would have responded “you must be crackers.” One hard working legislator and candidate was clear front runner for months.

OK. Certain aspects of this race were not surprising: that the Old King would retire; that the race would be between the two ACTIVE sitting members of the opposition party representing STRONG OPPOSITION PARTY DISTRICTS; that the contest would be fiercely fought; that it would be the most important political matter before the General Election of 2016.

One candidate is increasingly considered a PEOPLE’S MAN, by many inside and outside the party. He is evolving into the candidate of the GRASSROOTS: the POPULIST, the CHAMPION of the small man on the street so to speak.

He may not be liked by certain establishment figures. However, talk to any SMALL MAN on the street about who is to be trusted with power and taxpayer cash, in other words, who is, “the least hungry rat guarding the public cheese,’’ and this Observer will place his head on the block that this contender for party leader comes out on top. So why do some of the big party guns appear aimed at the man presently? That is a million dollar question.

How has he suddenly become a David and the other guy the Giant Goliath? Well, there is the general opinion that this candidate is not for the STATUS QUO: He is not a YES MAN. He is a CONVICTION POLITICIAN. He will not CHOP and CHANGE, neither FLIP nor FLOP. He will not TWIST and TURN for any and every reason. He will not be bought for 20 pieces of silver.

Nothing frightens an establishment more than someone it cannot control. Worse still, a leader who prefers sitting under a tree with farmers, small contractors, teachers, and sports coaches, rather than attend that sumptuous affair at the White House.

However talk to the janitor and handyman: the economically average men and women, who will make up a sizeable number of voters in 2016. Many will all tell you this: ‘that this is their man, and the man that understands their pain and suffering.’

Those that know him, unlike what his enemies try to imprint on the public imagination, know a loving father and husband. Here is a Leader of courage and integrity, with far fewer skeletons than most. But even more interestingly, a genuine man of prayer, not of the staple church type hypocrisy so very common these days, but a man with a genuine and personal relationship with Jesus Christ, and a man who insists on prayer before doing anything of importance.

He is deliberative, a straight shooter, strategic, and exceptionally intelligent. Yes these things may sound surprising. They are true, however. This observer has been accused of never having anything bad to say about the man. That may be true. This writer on the public forum will always dwell on the positive. Go back into the archives, and state where this Old Boy has ever had anything less than savory to tell about anyone, apart from the criminal and murderer.

Now, the powerful party establishment has a major problem. There have been mumblings that a couple of key players may have PADDED the delegate list with their supporters illegitimately, that the process is being rigged. If that is true, that the process is lacking transparency and integrity, then any winner that emerges will be unacceptable. The party will most probably split.

The political problem for the old party establishment is this one. The new David in this race has got strong street support. He has powerful street credibility. His supporters will simply not accept disenfranchisement. Any unintelligent shenanigans, would have torpedoed any chance the party has of winning in 2016.

However, David will remain strong. Believe it or not, the man commands a powerful, substantial, and quiet following, despite what his enemies maintain and the negative chit chat. He is also a brand name in Virgin Islands politics.

Brand is a very valuable commodity in politics. When the ship sinks, brand is the life boat that keeps a political party alive. The Grand Ole Party possesses a very powerful brand, and that is why it remains competitive to this day. More than anything else, it was brand that kept the present opposition alive since defeat in 2011. That brand will not survive a split, however.

However, David will keep his following and personal brand with or without the party brand. In fact, these schemes and machinations against him will play into his hands. Playing dirty by various PARTY KONGS will actually make his BRAND NAME stronger in the imagination of Joe Public. In the end, Joe’s vote is all that really counts.

So, for the sake of democratic politics in these paradise islands, and the Grand Ole Party, one should pray that this potential split does not happen. The only way to ensure that is this: the election of the new leader must not only appear to be clean, fair and legitimate, it must taste and smell so too.

To be continued

Dickson Igwe is a current affairs columnist, he is a scholar of strategy. Connect with Dickson Igwe on TWITTER and FACEBOOK. Email Dickson Igwe on dicksonresearch@gmail.com