On Wednesday morning the centre of Tropical Depression 14, likely to become thTropical Storm Maria, was located near latitude 13.0 north, longitude 42.0 west. Maria is moving toward the west near 23 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next two days. Image: National Hurricane Centre

Tropical Disturbance 37

Tropical Disturbance 37 just ahead of Tropical Depression 14 is expected to approach the Northern Leeward
Islands today and move in to the territory later today into tomorrow. The Disturbance has the potential to create unstable weather conditions increasing shower and thunderstorm activity in the territory.

The National Hurricane Center has given the Disturbance a 10% chance of development, which has not changed since the previous forecast.

Tropical Depression 14

Current Location: 12.0N/39.9W

Geographic Reference: 1455 miles east of the Lesser Antilles

Movement: W at 20 mph

Maximum Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly becoming better organized

Forecast Track Confidence: Average due to good model consensus and well-defined steering flow.

Changes From Previous Forecast

Some adjustments were made to the track and intensity forecasts.

Forecast

Model guidance is in good agreement on a general west-northwest track for the next 5 days and forecasters think that this system will track very close to or directly over the islands of the northeast Caribbean on Saturday. Thereafter, a continued west-northwest motion with a gradual turn to the northwest is expected, generally along the same track taken by Katia.

Conditions favor steady development over the next several days. The depression will very likely become Tropical Storm Maria later today. How strong it gets before reaching the northeast Caribbean is a bit uncertain. Forecasters think it will be a strong tropical storm as it moves through the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, becoming a hurricane north of the Dominican Republic however this scenario is based on the present data that is available.

Expected Impacts on Land

Leeward Islands: Squalls may reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean as early as Friday evening.

U.S. and British Virgin Islands: Squalls may reach the area by Saturday morning.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to our notification link to receive further updates.