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UPDATE: US admits blizzard forecast error

January 28th, 2015 | Tags: Winter Storm Juno snowstorm forecasters blizzard
The snow did not hit New York City as heavily as predicted. Photo: Reuters
This could be one of the biggest storms in New York City's history, meteorologists warn. Photo: AP
This could be one of the biggest storms in New York City's history, meteorologists warn. Photo: AP
BBC NEWS

The US National Weather Service (NWS) has admitted its forecasts were wrong, after predicting a "potentially historic blizzard" would strike New York City.

The city was largely spared as the storm piled deep snow on Connecticut and Massachusetts.

City mayor Bill de Blasio denied he had overreacted to warnings, saying he could only go on information available.

Blizzard warnings remain in effect for Maine and eastern New Hampshire.

"Rapidly deepening winter storms are very challenging to predict," the NWS wrote on its Facebook page.

"The storm has moved further east and will be departing faster than our forecasts of the past two days.

"The result is much less snow than previously predicted for the western half of our region," it added.

On Monday, an emergency was declared in a swathe of north-eastern states, and meteorologists predicted up to 90cm (36in) of snow. Officials later downgraded the numbers.

The New York City authorities imposed a driving ban - since lifted - and took the unprecedented step of shutting the subway.

But on Tuesday, New Yorkers awoke to a blanket of snow less deep than feared, and since then city life has been getting back to normal.

"Would you rather be prepared or unprepared? Would you rather be safe or unsafe?" asked Mr de Blasio, defending the moves.

"My job as the leader is to make decisions and I will always err on the side of safety and caution."

A woman takes a photograph of herself in New York's Times square (27 January 2015)
The snow did not hit New York City as heavily as predicted
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Analysis: Nick Bryant, BBC News, New York

Shutting down the New York subway system, for the first time in its history because of snow, can easily be viewed in retrospect like overkill. So does bringing in a car curfew, which banned non-emergency vehicles from the streets from 23:00 on Monday night.

Walking the empty streets of Manhattan pre-dawn, and seeing the snow, we all found ourselves asking the same question: "Is that it?"

It reminded me of that scene from Crocodile Dundee, when Mick Dundee is confronted by muggers wielding a switchblade. "That's not a knife," he says, pulling out a much scarier weapon. "This is a knife."

That's not a storm, some New Yorkers told us, as they made their way to work muttering that Bill de Blasio had got it badly wrong.

New Yorkers ask 'Is that it?'

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Snow clouds passing over north-eastern US
Other areas of New York state saw much heavier snowfall, with "blizzard conditions" across Long Island, according to the NSW.

A teenage boy was later killed in a sledging accident in the area.

Worst affected elsewhere were Connecticut and Massachusetts, with the heaviest snowfall recorded outside Boston - 91 cm (36 in) of snow in Lunenburg by Tuesday night.

In Connecticut, an elderly man collapsed while shovelling snow. He died later in hospital on Tuesday.

See article published January 27, 2015

New York shuts down for blizzard

New York City, Boston and other areas in the north-eastern US have shut down, with forecasters warning residents to expect "crippling" amounts of snow.

Winter Storm Juno could dump up to 60cm (25in) of snow near New York City, and in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Driving bans for all but emergency vehicles are in place in New York and Boston, with subway systems suspended.

Some 60 million people may be affected by the shutdown.

An emergency has been declared in the states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Meteorologists have downgraded their predictions, having initially predicted up to 90cm (36in) of snow.

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey have been spared extreme snow, and at least one winter storm warning in New Jersey has been cancelled.

However, the National Weather Service (NWS) warned that the storm could still bring "crippling snowfall amounts and life-threatening blizzard conditions to much of the north-east".

In other developments:

  • 6,500 flights in and out of airports along the East Coast have been cancelled
  • Businesses and schools closed early on Monday
  • Schools are not expected to reopen before Wednesday at the earliest
  • Boston is expected to bear the brunt of the storm
Satellite image of snow cloubs over north-eastern US
'Matter of life and death'

The NWS had previously warned that a "potentially historic blizzard" was approaching the north-east.

However, the blizzard appeared less severe than expected on Tuesday morning, with snowfall levels ranging from 2.5cm (1in) in Washington DC to 38cm (15in) at New York State's Islip airport at 03:00 local time (08:00 GMT).

A worker clears snow from sidewalks in Boston, Massachusetts, 26 January 2015
Boston is also forecast to receive some of the highest snowfalls
LaGuardia Airport in New York City, 26 January 2015
Thousands of flights have been cancelled

Meteorologists expect the snow and strong winds to continue throughout Tuesday, before weakening overnight.

"In areas close to the immediate coastline... hurricane force wind gusts to near 120km/h (75mph) will be possible," the NWS said.

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At the scene: Nick Bryant, BBC News, New York

As the weather deteriorated, workers in New York left early and headed for the safety of home, heeding warnings from officials. The subway system has been shut down, for the first time because of snow.

Broadway shows were dark, the neon-lit avenues deserted. It gave a ghostly feel to a city that famously never sleeps.

The storm's effects are being felt way beyond Manhattan, from New Jersey to Maine. Coastal areas such as Cape Cod and Long Island could face flooding and power blackouts. Boston is also in its path.

The Governor of Massachusetts called it "a top five historic storm."

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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo warned residents against violating the driving ban in 13 southern counties of the state.

"If you are in your car and you are on any road, town, village, city, it doesn't matter, after 11 o'clock [23:00 local time; 04:00 GMT], you will technically be committing a crime.

"It could be a matter of life and death so caution is required," the governor said.

Shovels and bags in a shop in Woburn, Massachusetts
Shovels are now in high demand in many shops across the affected region
Loaves of bread sit on a sparse shelf of bread items at a grocery store in Port Washington, New York January 26, 2015.
 
There were nearly empty shelves in some shops, as residents stocked up on bread and other essentials
A man skis in Prospect Park, New York City
But some have just been enjoying the snow, bringing out their skis and sledges

Echoing his words, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio urged residents to stay out of the way of the 2,300 snowploughs clearing city streets.

"You can't underestimate this storm. What you are going to see in a few hours in something that is going to hit very hard and very fast."

Similar bans for non-emergency vehicles were enacted in Connecticut and Massachusetts.

4 Responses to “UPDATE: US admits blizzard forecast error”

  • Preacher (27/01/2015, 10:39) Like (2) Dislike (0) Reply
    Its only the beginning of things to come this year.
  • ! (27/01/2015, 12:18) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
    wish I was there.
  • Concern 1 (29/01/2015, 07:00) Like (1) Dislike (0) Reply
    If the worst had come without preparation these same people would have said something different and who knows it might have been detrimental . Prevention is better than cure. Prior prevention prevents poor performance.
  • Sweet G (30/01/2015, 02:16) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
    @ Concern 1 it is _Prior proper planning prevents poor performance. The 6 p's to disaster preparations .You seems to be forgetting your disaster management stuff


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