Squalls remain confined to the west of the center due to moderate easterly wind shear. This marginal environment is likely to persist for the next couple of days. Image: DDM

Current Position: 8.2N and 37.2W

Geographic Reference: 1540 miles east-southeast of Barbados

Movement: West at 20 mph

Organizational Trend: Steady

Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 50 percent

Forecast Confidence: Average

Previous Forecast

The latest model guidance indicates that the disturbance will move through the Leeward and Windward Islands late Tuesday instead of early Wednesday. Therefore, the impacts to the Lesser Antilles will likely occur late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Forecast

There has been little change in Disturbance 15 this evening. Squalls remain confined to the west of the center due to moderate easterly wind shear. This marginal environment is likely to persist for the next couple of days. Thereafter, shear should increase from the west. Therefore, forecasters still think that if any development were to occur, it would have to do so during the next 48 hours. Regardless as to whether or not development occurs, the impacts will be similar for the Leeward and Windward Islands.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Gusts to tropical storm force are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles

Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches of rain are possible from late Tuesday through early Wednesday from Disturbance 15 for the Leeward and Windward Islands. These rains could cause localized flooding and mudslides. The rains are likely regardless as to whether or not the system develops into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

Residents are encouraged to make preparations as tropical cyclones moving off the African Coast will continue to increase in intensification as we move further into the season. The DDM is currently monitoring the situation and advise the public accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website and subscribe for updates.