Above: Dickson Igwe. Photo: supplied

There was great HULABALOO at the establishment of a third political party on March 29, 2014 in the Virgin Islands. However, this launch showed clearly one fact. There has been a split in one of the contenders for that ‘’ unenviable’’ third lane in party politics.

One prominent player in a third party in the 2011-12 election is today rubbing shoulders with the most powerful INDEPENDENT POLITICIAN since a two party hegemony was established many moons back. That idea, that there has been a split in one of the third party affairs is accurate. Clearly, loyalty does not matter in Virgin Islands politics. Power is all that matters these days.

So, the objective assessment of this Political Writer is this one: this is a very old movie. It is a film that has been played many times in the past, in election cycle after election cycle. He sees no reason why anything will be different this time around. These parties appear, contest elections, lose, and then disappear.

COLD ANALYTICS determine still, that by the time votes begin to get cast some time at the end of 2015 or early 2016, the dogfight will boil down to the BIG TWO. That is his opinion. It is based on simple precedent and recent political history. However, he joins in the celebration of democracy and freedom: a great virtue of these Lesser Antilles.

OK. There comes a time when crossroads are approached. This can be real or figurative. The crossroad is the time in life when one has to make the big decision to ‘’DO or DIE.’’

The opposition has reached such a crossroad: such a time. It has decided to put its house in order. Make no mistake about it, the decision made on April 23, 2014, wherever the Party Convention takes place, will be Virgin Islands history. That BIG TENT MEETING could very well decide the future leader of these Virgin Islands

So why is April 23 so crucial? Because based upon precedent, the race at the end of 2015 will, all things being equal, remain a TWO PARTY AFFAIR. A third party over the preceding 4-5 election cycles is yet to break into the two party mould.

This Writer stated in a previous story that for a third party to break the mould it will have to possess three distinct attributes: most importantly a name brand that is as recognizable and powerful as KELLOGS. That means a brand that is imprinted upon the voter imagination.

For a third party to break the present hegemony, it will further mean the party possessing a national vision that is overwhelmingly different from those of the established two parties. It must spell out in detail its social, economic, and national security vision, for the Virgin Islands.  

Then, a third party must possess BIG PERSONALITIES: SOLID CHARACTERS that stand out. These must be candidates that are different from the norm, having special qualities so to speak.

In any event, the all knowing Tom Voter will soon make the decision, whether this new outfit possesses these 3 critical and distinct features. Tom and Jane Electorate will determine whether the new boys on the bloc pass the ELECTABILITY TEST. Will this new organization pass muster? Time will tell: it always does!

This wannabe political strategist will offer his hypotheses on the new third party.

It is a complex political game by a master politician. The idea is to hold the BALANCE OF POWER at the upcoming election. Then the savvy political player of the second district will use his political clout to project himself into the Premier’s Office, when there is no clear choice from the ballot box in 2016. In other words, he is expecting a hung House of assembly: no one clear winner. Then one party or the other will need his one or two seats to gain power. He will grant this at a BIG PRICE.

However, this lover of VIRGIN ISLANDS POLITICS has been taking the complex pulse of Joe Voter lately. And his assessment is this: voters regret splitting their vote for various outfits, and one man bands, at the last General Election. So this time around they will vote for either one party or the other of the established two. That is his simple opinion 

To be continued

Dickson Igwe is a current affairs columnist. Connect with Dickson Igwe on TWITTER and FACEBOOK. Email Dickson Igwe on dicksonresearch@gmail.com