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The third party factor

The imminent entrance of a third party into the Virgin Islands political horse race will affect the outcome of general elections in early 2016. How a third party will do so, remains unclear
Dickson Igwe. Photo: VINO/File
By Dickson Igwe

This Old Boy Columnist was "GOB SMACKED’’ on Friday afternoon, January 30, 2015. Why? Well he bumped into a major pillar of the third party political culture in the British Virgin Islands. This Wannabe Analyst smirked dryly at his friend stating, “when will you guys face the reality that you are going to have to join forces with one of the BIG TWO, to get anywhere!”

His friend stated, “Igwe you are right. It looks like we are going to have to join forces with party x in order to see our agenda realized.”

Of course yours truly was delightfully surprised. And as he continues his writing rendition to objective and unbiased politics and a focus on the issues and nothing but the issues, he shook his friend’s hand with warmth and appreciation, that truth and reality had at last prevailed. His “buddy’’ had at last seen the light.

Now, someone stated once that the British Virgin Islands was a university. By that, the person was alluding to the country as a microcosm of the wider world. The country, for this writer, is certainly a political and economic laboratory of sorts. One can draw many analogies in the Virgin Islands that are a clear feature of the world outside. The micro is a tiny portrait of the macro.

This country is complex, and yet simple: it can be paradoxical. It is a colony with a high degree of autonomy. The native population evolved from an agrarian yesteryear, but the economy is also services oriented, driven by digital technology.

History and modernity coexist. There is massive wealth inequality that is causing slow economic growth. 1% of the population owns the economy and wealth. The trickledown economy is not working. The political class will deny that fact.
Certain aspects of the old culture remain, such as the religious nature of the people, and the resilience of skills such as fishing, and manual farming.

There are strong blood links between families through the length and breadth of the islands. The Virgin Islands including its cousin next door, the United States Virgin Islands, are multicultural and multiethnic, with a native population vastly outnumbered by migrants.

OK, the recent announcement by a popular television personality, SHAINA SMITH, that she was not joining the National Democratic Party as was being rumoured earlier, threw, stating a cliché, “a monkey in the wrench.’’

For this Political Writer, it will make for a very interesting 2016 General Election Season, if this exceptionally attractive personality leads a third political party.

Shaina is a symbol of a powerful, savvy, and intelligent Virgin Islands femininity. Just as is Zoe J. Walcott-McMillan, another exceptionally attractive young politician. These two youthful female politicians are the legacy of strong political role models, such as Honourable Eileene L. Parsons OBE, Honourable Dancia Penn, Honourable Irene Penn-O’Neal, Honourable Delores Christopher, and Honourable Alvera Maduro-Caines.

In any event, this Old Guy is certain that Shaina would have been better off joining one of the BIG TWO Parties for the 2016 political fist fight, just as he suggested to his political friend in Road Town. Notice how all the female senators are with the two main parties. That is not chance. That is a fact of two party politics. To succeed, one will have to join one or other political organization.

It will take a messianic like figure, of biblical proportion, to take a third party to power in the British Virgin Islands. Shaina is not messianic.

He does not see any third force achieving power under the present two party regimens. History and demography are against any third party becoming dominant. The country may have to wait another 5 years to enjoy the virtues of Shaina’s undoubted qualities, giftings and talents, should Shaina repeat her 2011 election plan.

The 2016 General Election will be won by whichever party gets its base to the polls in greater numbers, and gets its supporters fired up. That is how Election 2016 is ‘panning out.’ The current high level of passion points to a clear dichotomy in the electorate, between supporters of the Virgin Islands Party and the National Democratic Party. When there is high passion and intensity, the pool of undecided voters shrinks. That is not good for a third party.

In any event, this Old Boy believes Shaina will ultimately be SWOOPED UP by one of the two major political parties, now or in the future. He further predicts that Shaina will enjoy an illustrious political career if she does join one of the big two. Shaina certainly possesses national leadership potential.

The impact of third parties or independent candidates in Virgin Islands elections is twofold: one, the third party and independent takes away votes from candidates of the two major parties; two, the third party is a place where protest votes reside. Voters unhappy with the two main parties find refuge in a third party.

How would this third party dynamic affect the 2016 Virgin Islands General Election?

To assess that matter, a look back at the 2011 General election is appropriate. In 2011 there was evidence that independent candidates affected the trajectory in certain districts to the disadvantage of the present Virgin Islands Party.

Whether the third party, and independent candidate, affected the at large vote remains unclear. Arguably, party brand affects the at large vote greater than it does the district vote.

What does that show? Well, there may be an in built disadvantage to incumbents, from a third party or independent candidates. Why: simply because voters have short memories. People remember only the latest wrongs.
The wrongs done 5 years ago are ancient history in politics.

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