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The formidable Jack Swing

Dickson Igwe. Photo: Provided
By Dick Igwe

The swing voter is a powerful fact of modern politics, even in these British Virgin Islands. The most common swing voter model exists where a strong two party system is in place. Under the model, the two parties enjoy the support of the vast majority of voters.

Furthermore, these voters evenly support the two parties. However, within a two party dynamic, a small number of voters remain undecided until the very last hours of the race. This undecided element can go either way. This is where the swing vote dynamic resides. Frequently, this small group decides the outcome of an election. 

The proceeding narrative states why the next Virgin Islands General Election at the end of 2015 may very well be decided by swing voters, or non committed voters. This political writer believes that unlike the preceding model stated in the introductory paragraph, where a very small number of swing voters are crucial to an election result, the Virgin Islands voter model possesses a much larger percentage of swing voters. Probably, a third of the voting public in the Virgin Islands are undecided swing voters. This story is part of a series taking the political pulse of the Virgin Islands at midterm.

Last week’s political narrative, ‘’THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SWING VOTE,’’ generated interesting responses. The politics of swing is clearly a permanent feature of Virgin Islands politics.

It is important to state that the actual number of swing voters in the Virgin Islands cannot be determined for a lack of data. This country does not conduct the type of pre election surveys done in countries that possess population sampling methods that are relatively accurate. Then, even if these surveys were conducted, they would be meaningless, for lack of any metrics on the national population. So any political evaluation of population subsets in the Virgin Islands could only be derived by a look at the electoral roll: and that raises questions about privacy.  

However, even if the number of non committed voters is small, when compared with a two party system’s core party supporters, the voting decision of swing voters taken together, can significantly affect the trajectory of an election.

Now, there were some bloggers that agreed with the assertion that the swing vote was in play on the territory’s political landscape at the last election, and preceding general elections. And that it would be a factor in upcoming elections.  However, there were responders who were clearly not in agreement.

One subject is always guaranteed to generate strong responses, and that is POLITICS. The political story of Saturday February 22, 2014, was no exception. 

OK. In the opposing group, one statement that caught the attention was this one by a blogger named POLITICS. The blogger asserted that, ‘’ votes in the BVI are evenly split between the incumbents and opposition:’’ the two main parties that have dominated Virgin Islands politics since 2000.

‘Politics’ insisted that this has been so in the past 4 elections, and that those voters in between, are simply voters interested in the white cash envelope. That assertion explained the two party system’s hold on Virgin Islands politics.  But it also alluded to the politics of swing. Whether the blogger understood this, is another question.

‘Politics’ gave a scenario that goes like this. 45% vote for the opposition and 45% for the incumbents, the remaining 10% wait for a bribe to decide who to vote for. If the majority, say 8% of that swing vote of 10%, goes one way, then that is the way the election goes. Politics stated that the swing voter in the BVI was money oriented, and could care less about the issues of the day. He or she waited for a money offer from either camp before deciding who to vote for. Interesting indeed!

In Politics’ scenario, the 10% uncommitted were the swing vote. The following questions should be asked. Does the swing vote explain the landslide in 2007 or 2008, for the opposition? Does the swing vote affect the outcome if votes are evenly split? Or can the swing vote explain the fact that there has been an electoral see saw in the Virgin Islands, with one party in power and the other out of power, consecutively, over the past 4 elections.

Yes. Virgin Islands election outcomes over the past decade and more can be best explained by observing the behavior of the small number of swing voters or uncommitted voters. Why? Because a move by that small number of undecided voters either way frequently spells disaster for the party the swing vote moves away from.

In any event ‘Politics,’ despite his or her opposition to the idea that there is a swing voter element in Virgin Islands elections, was ironically validating the claim that swing voters determine the outcome of elections, even if that swing vote is the 10% waiting for the white envelope. The swing vote is frequently the reason for one term governments.

Another response in the blog stream told a sad story. This was a narrative that described the Virgin Islands voter, as someone who could care less about the issues that matter to the country. The Virgin Islands voter was simply interested in ‘’WHAT IS IN IT FOR ME,’’ or cold hard ‘’CASH.’’ This voter totally disagreed with that cynical assertion from that blogger.

Yes, most voters vote on the proverbial bottom line. Voting for personal benefit is a common feature of voters all over the world, not just the Virgin Islands. So the WHITE ENVELOPE is certainly not a Virgin Islands peculiarity.  

VOTER BRIBERY is a phenomenon, found not only within the borders of these Lesser Antilles. Voter bribery happens everywhere, but in probably more subtle forms. In the USA is it is called PORK; In Britain LOLLY. So there is more to the Virgin Islands voter than selfishness and greed.

On the positive side, the exceptionally well researched blogger NP POLITICO, made allusions to, ‘’ A CHANGED ELECTORATE. Emigration, migration, aging baby boomers, a rising standard of living, and quality of life, were factors that were causing change in the electorate. ‘’ That illuminating blogger further stated that, core supporters of both the incumbents and opposition were made up of, ‘’ loyal boomers.’’ These were the core support of both main parties.

NP Politico asserted that the impatient, or the voters least committed, were the ‘’ progressive generation Xs, and Millenials, who were born in the British Virgin Islands, but whose parents were born outside the country.’’ This was a clear allusion to the swing voter element in Virgin Islands politics.

In any event, a further allusion made to a changing voter demographic by bloggers included this nugget by a well known and savvy BVI and USVI financial broker.  The broker stated that, ‘’ the under 50 voter group is helped by those entering voting age status, and younger new citizens joining the community through migration.’’  Extremely valid assertion sir!

This latter group were the ‘’ ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM,’’ according to NP POLITICO. This was also, ‘’ THE FASTEST GROWING VOTING BLOCK.’’ The popular blogger stated that, ‘’ ASTUTE POLITICIANS recognized that reality and were embracing it.’’

To be continued

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7 Responses to “The formidable Jack Swing”

  • ... (01/03/2014, 09:06) Like (2) Dislike (0) Reply
    This guy head in the clouds
    • work it (02/03/2014, 10:26) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
      THE MAN IS SPOT ON LEAVE HE....PEOPLE NOT GOING BE VOTING FOR PARTIES ANYLONGER BUT FOR INDIVISIAL WHO CAN DO TEH WORK
  • qc (02/03/2014, 01:15) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
    Igwe I don’t agree that the swing vote theroy!!!
  • AC 360 (02/03/2014, 06:54) Like (8) Dislike (0) Reply
    One thing for sure we want the ndp gone!
  • bvi voters (03/03/2014, 07:15) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
    my vote will swing back to the VIP in the next election simply because they at least made an attempt to curb crime and the people were eating while they were in!!!!
  • pat (03/03/2014, 14:19) Like (0) Dislike (0) Reply
    We will be swinging right back to the grand ole VIP


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