With Governor of the Virgin Islands, His Excellency Augustus J. U. Jaspert urging citizens be ready for the 2019 hurricane season, the Sun Sentinel storm watcher website has predicted that it is anticipating a lower probability of the heavy storm activity that characterized the past three years. Photo: VINO/File

Governor Jaspert in speaking to the media recently noted, “We have an excellent Department of Disaster Management, but is the responsibility right across government to prioritize this and there has been a lot of work trying to get all of our shelters, we are moving to get our key infrastructure in place to make sure that our critical buildings are prepared, to make sure that the communications systems work.” Photo: VINO/File

The 2016, 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons were marked by an onslaught of catastrophic storms including Matthew, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence and Michael and the website noted that storm experts, Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell assessed five possible scenarios for 2019, based on climate factors like the possibility of an El Niño emerging.

What to Expect

An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The five scenarios use a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, which is essentially a measurement of the total tropical activity in a season. Here are Klotzbach and Bell’s five scenarios and their likelihood of occurring:

--14 to 17 named storms, 9 to 11 hurricanes and 4 to 5 major hurricanes (ACE total of 170). Probability: 10 percent.

--12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 2 to 3 major hurricanes (ACE total of 130). Probability: 25 percent.

--8 to 11 named storms, 3 to 5 hurricanes, 1 to 2 major hurricanes (ACE total of 80). Probability: 20 percent.

--Slightly different climate factors but the same range of storms as #3: 8 to 11 named storms, 3 to 5 hurricanes, 1 to 2 major hurricanes (ACE total of 80). Probability: 30 percent.

--5 to 7 named storms, 2 to 3 hurricanes, with between 0 and 1 major hurricane (ACE total of 50). Probability: 15 percent.

VI Started Preparations– Governor

Ahead of the predictions, Governor Jaspert in speaking to the media recently said, “There is a huge amount of work that has been done. We don’t just do this three month before the hurricanes.” 

The Governor noted, “We have an excellent Department of Disaster Management, but is the responsibility right across government to prioritize this and there has been a lot of work trying to get all of our shelters, we are moving to get our key infrastructure in place to make sure that our critical buildings are prepared, to make sure that the communications systems work.”

He said that the territory also has the support in getting contingency stocks around the territory, “But it is also a useful time to remind every member around the territory... think through how ready are they."