The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is monitoring a number of weather events especially an approaching tropical wave and an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic. Photo: DDM

Purcell Estate was one of the worst hit areas during the Tropical Wave on August 7, 2017. Photo: Facebook

The National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) forecasters in their recent hurricane season update stated that this season has the potential to be extremely active. Photo: DDM

The National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) recently updated the number of named storms and major hurricanes to 14-19 named storms, of which 2-5 could be major hurricanes. Photo: DDM

According to the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services and the DDM are monitoring a number of weather events especially an approaching tropical wave and an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic.

“The approaching tropical wave is projected to be in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands around Monday or early next week, increasing the chance of more showers. This system will be monitored for any sudden changes,” DDM reported on its website this morning, August 12, 2017.

DDM reported too that it is also keeping an eye on another area of disturbed weather but said it remains too early to determine whether or not it will miss the islands to the north.

Meantime, Invest 99L is along longitude 68 degrees west. It is about 300 miles north of Hispaniola. The system has been moving to the west-northwest over the last few days. However, a more northerly track is expected by Sunday. “The disturbance has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by early next week.  This is will be the final update on Invest 99L as it continues to move away from the Territory,” DDM stated.

Forecasters increase storm & hurricane predictions

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) recently updated the number of named storms and major hurricanes that were predicted for the 2017 hurricane season.

NOAA forecasters in their recent hurricane season update stated that this season has the potential to be extremely active and are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season with an increase in the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes.

Initially in May, forecasters predicted 11-17 named storms of which 2-4 could be major hurricanes. Now, the predictions are 14-19 named storms, of which 2-5 could be major hurricanes. The predictions of 5-9 hurricanes overall, remains unchanged.

The lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, Gerry Bell explained that the factors contributing to the increase of the above-normal season.

He said, “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

 Be ready don’t let your guard down

Speaking with Viona A. Smith, Information and Education Manager at the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), in agreement with Gerry Bell, stated that the driving force behind the above-normal season is caused by the El Nino forming and also the Atlantic Ocean being very warmer than usual.

Under the theme “Be ready, don’t let your guard down”, Ms Smith urges persons within the Territory to be prepared for this year’s hurricane season. She encouraged persons to have emergency supplies in their household such as flashlight, first aid kit and battery powered radio which she added is very essential during the hurricane season. In addition, individuals should stock up on food supplies that are none perishable and clean water.

Ms Smith further said, “Check your surroundings for loose items so they do not become projectile during hurricane. Also, within your own family, start looking at your home and evaluate to see whether or not your home can withstand a hurricane.”

Viona A. Smith encourages persons to stay abreast of what is happening with the information that the Department of Disaster and Management continues to make available.

Director of the DDM, Sharlene S. DaBreo continues to emphasise the need for everyone to remain vigilant and prepared for these weather systems. 

Six named storms this season

To date, the season has produced six named storms: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily and Franklin. The total number of named storms in an ‘average’ Atlantic hurricane season is 12, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Apart from named storms and hurricanes, other weather systems such as tropical waves could pose a threat to the region and continue to be monitored.