A new world of restricted travel
The global travel and tourism industry will inevitably contract and decline significantly, as the Corona Virus Pandemic continues its devastating journey through the world economy. For the Caribbean, a region wholly dependent upon tourism for its economic existence, this will be no easy time.
Social distancing on aeroplanes; testing and quarantine of travellers upon arrival; the shutdown of the cruise industry; the shutdown of the global leisure industry; the devastation of the hotel and resort industry; the collapse of global airlines; the steep recession in the USA and Western Europe; huge jobless numbers comparable to the Depression of the 1930s; the preceding woes are already upon us.
Commerce is a social enterprise. The exchange of products and services requires proximity between individuals in spite of the virtual world of digitization and algorithm. Social exchange is integral to a functioning economy.
When consumers are required to socially isolate; when markets are shut down; when consumers are terrified; with politicians that cannot be trusted giving delusional and unscientific advice; economic matters simply worsen.
The USA and UK have been observed as models of how ‘’not’’ to manage the pandemic socially and economically.
The failure to completely lockdown and close borders has allowed a Trojan horse of death and destruction, into the UK. Then, Donald Trump’s idea that a robust economy can function side by side with an uncontrolled pandemic is ‘’absurd.’’
Countries that have managed to control the infection rate of Corona Virus are treading cautiously on reopening their economies. And that includes their travel and tourism industries.
The future of travel may well include a third protocol. Travellers will be asked upon arrival at specific countries to show documentary evidence they are virus free and then further undergo testing, before being allowed entry. A second passport, a medical document, showing a medical and vaccination narrative is on the cards.
Travellers from countries such as the USA, UK and specific European states, where the Pandemic remains uncontrolled, will in addition to the preceding, be required to undergo quarantine and extra testing, before gaining entry into countries that have managed to control their infection rates.
Travel between countries with low infection rates such as Australia and New Zealand will allow travel between themselves subject to the requisite testing and medical protocols.
Travel and tourism will only open up after the virus has been eradicated.
But that may be towards the end of 2021, depending upon whether a vaccination, cure, or both, are in place.
In the meanwhile, Caribbean countries must learn to adopt resilience and patience until such a time as when the tourism and travel industry begins to recover: no easy task as people go unemployed, facing certain hardship that will last for many months.
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5 Responses to “A new world of restricted travel”
Additionally, the impressive Mia Mottley, Barbados PM and Chairwoman of Caricom, in an interview with CNN Christiane Amanpour, stated that Caricom was one the most travel and trade dependent region in the world with over 50% of GDP and direct and indirect employment coming from tourism, along with being heavily indebted.
Nonetheless, the Coronavirus pandemic has brought tourism in the region to a slow crawl if not shut down altogether. Tourism is 1/2 of the VI service-based economic twin pillars; financial services(approx 60% of government revenue came from financial services), other. Consequently, many lives and livelihoods have been adversely impacted, i.e., employment.
Moreover, the outlook for a quick tourism reboot to pre-Coronavirus level is bleak for several reasons. The US, the lead market for tourists, economy is tanking.
Over 20,000,000 jobs lost in April; this one month lost is approx 2.5 times the lost of the Great Recession (8,600,000) of 2008/2009 and wiped out the post Great Recession job gains of approx 22,000,000; the total number of jobs lost in the last 7 weeks is approx 33,000,000.
The current unemployment rate is 14.7% and is projected to approach the Great Depression rate of 24.9% in the coming months. Secondly, in a depressed economy, people have less discretionary income and tend to travel less.
Thirdly, with the Coronavirus, people have to develop the confidence to travel again. And lastly, American Airlines and other major carriers are planning to ground hundreds of planes and cut seats. Cruise lines, if still operational, will have to rework itineraries.
Moreover, the VI has to reimagined what life will be like during and post-Coronavirus. It is not going to be life pre-Coronavirus. The old normal is a distant and fading imaging in the rear view mirror and a new normal will emerge. BVI is facing the need sudden change amidst the biggest disruptive event perhaps since WWII; it is in the midst of global crisis and effective crisis management is needed.
This pandemic has exposed some structural economic weaknesses, food insecurity, poor or nonexistent national policies, need for more effective goals and objectives and strategic and tactical planning…..etc and as such, the VI has to re-engineer a new path forward, i.e., diversifying the economy.